Nature Loss and Sovereign Credit Ratings

Biodiversity loss and environmental degradation can have material impact on sovereign creditworthiness. Current methodologies published and applied by leading credit rating agencies (CRAs) do not explicitly incorporate biodiversity and nature-related risks. Omitting them may ultimately undermine market stability.

Building on cutting-edge World Bank research (2021) and using the most advanced AI methodology and models, this report examines how biodiversity loss – more specifically, a reduction in marine fisheries, tropical timber, and wild pollination services - would affect sovereign debt markets in 26 nations.

Results include implications for sovereigns in the case of a partial collapse of ecosystem services as well as of a gradual nature loss at current rates under a business as-usual scenario.

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